At a recent press availability during the Air Force Association’s winter conference the Secretary of the Air Force indicated that the KC-X new aerial tanker contract will be awarded as early as this week. Earlier rumors had it being done in the next month or so.

Mr. Donley also made it clear that there is a potential for a protest of the award by either Boeing (BA) or EADS NA (EADS:P) if they don’t win and that the Air Force and the Defense Department are prepared to deal with it.

This is the third attempt to award this contract with the last contest won by Northrop Grumman (NOC) and EADS in 2008 overturned on Boeing’s protest. Due to the size, importance and the conflicts between the U.S. contractor and its supporters and the European aerospace giant this may continue to be an messy, extended affair.

For now everyone must wait until the decision is announced which could occur as early as tomorrow after 5:00 Eastern.

With the submission of their second proposal for the KC-X aerial tanker program EADS (EADS:P) stated that due to production increases they were able to lower the price on their KC-30 tanker aircraft. Chairman of EADS North America, Ralph Crosby, said by about six percent.

EADS and Boeing (BA) are trying for a second time to win the new tanker for the U.S. Air Force that will replace the aging KC-135R aircraft. In 2008 EADS which was teamed with Northrop Grumman (NOC) won the last contest which was overturned on protest by Boeing. The two companies submitted their final proposals last week.

Boeing has not provided such details but has previously stated that their smaller KC-767 aircraft has better fuel efficiency and maintenance costs that will save the Air Force money over the long run.

In recent testimony the Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, indicated that the award announcement will be made in a few weeks following up on the Air Force’s budget document which indicated prior to April 1st.

Despite the current issues with defense funding the Defense Department and Air Force reportedly said that they hope to award the KC-X aerial tanker contract within a month. The budget sent forward for 2012 on Monday stated that the planned contract was valued at around $35 billion.

It sounds like that even with the Pentagon acting under a continuing resolution rather then an official budget that at least the winner will be announced. There is some concern that without a 2011 budget resolution from Congress a new contract of this magnitude might not be able to be awarded. This means that the Air Force will have to wait until October 2011 to have initial funding for the purchase of the new tanker.

The KC-X saga is heavy with political overtones as supporters of both Boeing (BA) and EADS (EADS:P) in Congress continue to lobby OSD and threaten problems if their preferred source is not chosen.

The Air Force has been trying since early in this decade to buy a new tanker and this award may be the last step towards doing that. Although the chances of a protest by the loser remain high and the current budget situation between President Obama and Congress may make it difficult to get the funding resolved anytime soon.

It has been confirmed that both Boeing (BA) and EADS North America (EADS:P) submitted their final proposals for the KC-X aerial tanker program. The Air Force had asked that they be submitted by today and both companies turned them in early.

One pressing question that remains is if the Department of Defense remains under Continuing Resolution (CR) for the rest of the year rather then Congress passing a proper budget is it possible to award the new contract? It looks like the Republican controlled House is planning on doing CR until the new Fiscal Year (FY) starts in October. There has not yet been any statement from the Government on this question.

One would think that even if the source selection is carried out and a winner chosen with the caveat that the contract award would have to wait until the next FY it might affect the pricing. Having a requirement to guarantee the pricing for several months has not been identified yet and it would have some effect on each company’s bids.

As everything with this program nothing is easy and it seems this third attempt may be even more complex and controversial than the first two.

Both Boeing (BA) and EADS NA (EADS:P) have met with the U.S. Air Force reportedly to discuss final changes to the KC-X RFP. The companies have until 11 February to submit their final revisions to their proposed solutions to the new aerial tanking requirement.

Boeing has said that they will update their proposal although EADS NA has said they may not. Swirling around all of this final burst of activity is the concerns by some in Congress, the media and at the bidders about the accidental release of information by the U.S. Air Force to each team as well as the two World Trade Organizations (WTO) rulings on both companies receiving illegal subsidies.

Some Boeing supporters in Congress are now saying that the data release gives EADS an advantage and that there should be deeper investigations. The Air Force “reassigned” two personnel as punishment and Congress did have hearings last week about the matter. Washington state, Illinois and Kansas legislators all from states that stand to gain work if Boeing wins sent a letter to the DOD IG asking them to look to see if the data released skewed the contest in EADS’ favor.

All of these conditions make it seem inevitable that there will be a protest to the contract award no matter who wins it. There will also be political pressure from supporters of both companies to review the contract and make sure that there favored winner was not treated unfairly.

All this adds up to further delays in replacing the KC-135 systems made during the Cold War. Once again this problem has been created by the disappearance from the U.S. industrial base of multiple suppliers of large aircraft. Currently only Boeing and EADS make aircraft acceptable to the Air Force to meet this requirement. If there is to be even a modicum of competition the two have to be involved which leads us to the current ugly situation of charges and counter charges of favoritism, jingoism and bias.

This will probably be the biggest contract awarded for the next decade by the Defense Department and is critical to both companies maintaining a foothold in the large military aircraft business worldwide which is leading us to the current situation which does not seem like it will end well.

In the latest round of the back-and-forth at the World Trade Organization (WTO) between the United States and the European Union (EU) over airline development and sales the report on Boeing (BA) was leaked to the press and found that the Chicago based company received illegal subsidies from the U.S. Government and four states. In September this finding was also leaked as a preliminary to the completion of the final report.

Earlier last year the WTO had ruled in favor of the U.S. in their complaint about launch aid for EADS’ (EADS:P) Airbus products. Since that time there have been those in Congress trying to rewrite acquisition law and regulations so that the illegal aid to EADS would be taken into account in the upcoming KC-X new aerial tanker decision on which Boeing and EADS submitted bids for the initial $39 billion contract.

The findings by the WTO that both sides provided illegal aid that caused unfair competition to the other should lead to negotiations to settle the matter. The normal WTO punishment of having the losing company pay back the economic affect on the other will probably not happen due to the large amounts involved.

The two decisions may aid the Pentagon in deciding the KC-X contract as it possibly removes the issue from the competition and might limit some chances for a protest by the loser. The Pentagon has made clear for months that it cannot take into account the WTO rulings in their source selection and evaluation hence the attempts by Boeing’s supporters in the legislative branch to change the rules.

Now with both bidders confirmed to have benefited from illegal subsidies of some sort it hopefully will remove the issue and allow a competition based on merits and meeting the requirements as defined by the Air Force and Defense Department.

The Indian military as part of its ongoing efforts to upgrade the overall technology of their equipment has tendered a contract for new aerial tankers. Currently they use a version of the Russian Ilyushin (IL)-78 tanker developed several years ago and in service with the Russian military. Reportedly Airbus, and EADS (EADS:P) company, and Ilyushin will submit bids for this contract.

Last year Airbus had submitted a proposal to sell the A330MRTT tanker to India but the contract award was canceled by the Finance Ministry as being too expensive. This contest is a result of that decision.

The A330MRTT is undergoing certification testing for Australia as well as being built for the United Kingdom and the U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia. It is also going to be EADS North America’s submission for the KC-X tanker contract for the U.S. Air Force.

Of note the existing IL-78 tankers have been supporting the flight demonstrations for India’s MMRCA new fighter contract. This means they have required the contestants to be modified to work with the IL-78. Competitors include the F/A-18, Rafael, SAAB Gripen, MiG and Eurofighter. This demonstrates that the IL-78 may be able to fuel a fleet of modern Western aircraft.

If Airbus does win the Indian competition it is only for a few aircraft but it will aid them in getting their production processes in place to get ready for the much larger KC-X contract. The more of the model of the aircraft flying as well will help them with the overall cost of the aircraft and program. Just as the more 767 tankers Boeing (BA) sells to other countries the better for them.

There are starting to be media reports that indicate the U.S. Air Force will announce the winner of the KC-X aerial tanker contract in February of this year. The decision had been planned before the end of 2010 but due to delays in reviewing the proposals and the inadvertent slip up of sending the competition’s information to the two bidders it has now moved to 2011.

In a recent presenstion the Secretary of the Air Force, Michael Donley, said that Senate hearings into the information mess may be limited due to the current source selection process. To some this indicates the Air Force does not want the hearing near the decision announcement. The award and potential protest would also constrain what information could be given to the Senate and discussed at the hearing.

Sean O’Keefe, EADS North America’s CEO, also recently said that he expects the award soon. He believes best and final offers will be submitted before January 31st and then the Air Force decision in February.

This will be the third attempt to buy a replacement for the KC-135 aircraft since 2001. The Air Force, Boeing (BA) and EADS (EADS:P) all hope that it will be the last and final try.

There is a good chance no matter who wins the award that there will be a protest. The 35 billion plus contract for these aircraft is the biggest military aviation contract right now. It is critical to both companies aircraft production plans and would give them a significant advantage in future tanker competitions world wide.

The House of Representatives winding down the lame duck session voted today to pass legislation forcing the Pentagon to take into consideration in source selection whether one of the bidders has an unfair competitive advantage. While not naming any names the law is oriented towards EADS (EADS:P) bid for the new KC-X aerial tanker program. The law has little chance of being considered in the Senate anytime in the next few days.

This is fallout from the World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling earlier this year that EADS had received illegal subsidies from European nations. This was mainly in the form of “launch aid” loans that would only be paid back if the aircraft were profitable but also included tax breaks and infrastructure funding. The Pentagon has made clear that U.S. procurement law and regulation do not allow these types of rulings to be a factor so Boeing (BA) supporters in the House and Senate have been making efforts to change the law so that EADS will not have a “competitive advantage”.

The WTO has also made a ruling against the European counter claim against Boeing that it had received some aid from the U.S. government.

The KC-X is in this situation as there are currently only two Western companies that are able to build this aircraft. In order to gain any competition with a goal of cost savings Boeing and EADS must be considered. A wild card attempt by U.S. Aerospace teamed with Ukrainian manufacturer Antonov was not considered.

If you think Congress is upset about EADS think about how they would react to an Antonov win no matter how cost effective or capable it would have been.

Until the Air Force makes its source selection decision known this kind of fighting will continue. Protests by the loser are also to be expected as the KC-X saga enters its tenth year.

The well known aerospace analyst writes that based on discussions he has had it looks good for EADS North America to win the current KC-X new aerial tanker competition. He believes that the information accidentally shared by the U.S. Air Force with EADS and its U.S. competitor, Boeing (BA), indicate that the analysis by the source selection board favors EADS A330 MTT based bid.

EADS did win the contest two years ago teamed with Northrop Grumman (NOC) only to have it overturned on protest by Boeing. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) ruled that the Air Force had not applied its own criteria properly in evaluating those bids.

This time around EADS bid by itself and proposed basically the same aircraft. Boeing bid a modified version of their 767 tanker incorporating parts of the new 787 cockpit and other improvements.

Last month the Air Force had to admit it sent information to the two bidders about the others after mixing up the CD’s with data.

In Thompson’s analysis the data showed the Air Force favoring the EADS aircraft. Of course Boeing will have a chance to protest if they really do lose this contract.

In another piece of this very complicated puzzle this latest development may have serious affects on the latest attempt to replace the KC-135 Cold War era tankers.