This would mean that Boeing (BA) would make no profit on the initial contract for 17 aircraft as it is responsible for all costs above it.

The Washington Post reports that Boeing’s EAC is a $5.1 billion and the Government’s $5.3 billion. The ceiling is $4.8 billion.

Estimated costs for this initial development of the program have been up-and-down over the last six months but last reports had Boeing still under the ceiling.

The SAR also shows that the Air Force plans to spend $40 billion on procurement for the 179 tankers with the last order placed in 2027.

One pressing question that remains is if the Department of Defense remains under Continuing Resolution (CR) for the rest of the year rather then Congress passing a proper budget is it possible to award the new contract? It looks like the Republican controlled House is planning on doing CR until the new Fiscal Year (FY) starts in October. There has not yet been any statement from the Government on this question.

One would think that even if the source selection is carried out and a winner chosen with the caveat that the contract award would have to wait until the next FY it might affect the pricing. Having a requirement to guarantee the pricing for several months has not been identified yet and it would have some effect on each company’s bids.

As everything with this program nothing is easy and it seems this third attempt may be even more complex and controversial than the first two.

It starts “The Air Force’s ten-year effort to purchase a new aerial tanker continues rapidly seems to be disintegrating. The third attempt at awarding a contract for what has now become one of the most critical needs for the Department of Defense has been roiled by international trade, politics and concerns about the whole approach.”

You may read the rest here.

“Since the Department of Defense indicated their interest in EADS’ participation as prime contractor in the KC-X tanker competition, the company has carefully assessed the many requirements necessary to participate. We have firmly indicated that a 90-day extension would be the minimum time necessary to prepare a responsible proposal for this $40 billion program. We will consider the Department’s decision to offer a 60-day extension.”

This seems to indicate that EADS may still have given themselves an option not to participate by claiming the need for ninety days vice sixty.

They won the last contract to have that thrown out on Boeing’s protest. Much more to come on this in the days ahead.

The Secretary of Defense Robert Gates in testimony to the House Armed Services Committee made it clear that the Defense Department and U.S. Air Force will release the Request for Proposal (RFP) for the new KC-X tanker and award a contract even if only Boeing (BA) submits a proposal. The Department hopes that the Northrop Grumman (NOC) and EADS (EADS:P) will submit a bid but will go forward with the planned contract even if they don’t.

In early December Northrop Grumman’s CEO sent a letter to the Air Force stating that due to the terms of the draft RFP they felt that it so favored Boeing that they and their partner EADS, parent of Airbus, would not submit a proposal. Northrop had won the contract in 2008 only to lose it on protest by Boeing with the Government Accountability Office (GAO) saying that the Air Force changed the requirements and was not completely fair to Boeing. An earlier attempt to award Boeing a lease for KC-767 aircraft collapsed amid scandals and Congressional desire to have contest.

Read the entire post Defense Department Willing To Do KC-X With Only Boeing Bid for more.

If Northrop and EADS don’t submit a bid it will be hard to get actual competition on the contract. That would leave just one submission, Boeing, or perhaps two from them if they go the route of having a 777 as well as a 767 proposal. This situation would make it hard for the Air Force to proceed.

The chances of Northrop doing this is low and the Department of Defense realizes it. This is the largest procurement coming down the road and both EADS and Boeing need the work. Of course if there is really a belief that their bid cannot win no matter what then Northrop should just save the money and not prepare one. This is only the draft RFP so the next year or so should be interesting.

Looks like the Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force have already pushed back on this. Our position is that the U.S. Air Force clearly and definitively dealt with this issue and we look forward to our first meeting with the Air Force in this competition.